British Columbia gets more power

BC Hydro announced the winners of its 2024 Call for Power. Originally, BC Hydro had tendered bids for 3,000 Gigawatthours [GWh]. They received bids for three times this volume. On December 9, 2024, they announced nine winning bids for a total of just under 5,000 GWh of energy, and 1,431 Megawatts [MW] of nameplate capacity. This implies an expected utilization rate of about 39% for the wind farm projects.

The list of projects shows significant geographic variation, ensuring that the power supply benefits from a portfolio diversification effect. All projects also have formed partnerships with Indigenous communities. BC Hydro has signed 30-year power purchasinga agreements (PPAs) with the nine winners. These PPAs are structured as take-or-pay agreements, with inflation adjustment as well as time on-peak/off-peak adjustments. The full list of winners appears below. Most of these projects have been under development already with consultations and planning.

Project Size
[MW]
Region First Nations Partner
Boulder and Elkhart 94 South Interior West Upper Nicola Band
Brewster 97 Vancouver Island Wei Wai Kum First Nation
Highland Valley 197 South Interior West Ashcroft Indian Band
K2 160 South Interior West Westbank First Nation
Mount Mabel 143 South Interior West Lower Nicola Indian Band
Nilhts'I Ecoener 140 Central Interior Lheidli T'enneh
Nithi Mountain 200 North Coast Stellat'en First Nation
Stewart Creek 200 Peace West Moberly First Nation
Taylor 200 Peace Saulteau First Nations

The press release states an expected construction cost of $5 to $6 billion. Amortized over the 30-year period of the PPA, and using a 4% discount rate, I estimate a levelized cost of electricity of $64/MWh. This does not include additional costs for transmission infrastructure, however. This number compares quite favourably with the cost range for onshore wind reported in Lazard's June 2024 Levelized Cost of Energy report: US$27–73, equivalent to $37–$100/MWh in Canadian terms. The cost for the new wind farms in BC looks very reasonable, ensuring that British Columbia's electricity rates will remain affordable.

Wind power is a particularly favourable type of renewable energy that complements BC Hydro's hdyro-power assets. Wind power output tends to peak in the winter, when power demand is highest. BC's power system has sufficient capacity to back up wind power.

More electric power will be needed in BC to power more electric vehicles and heat pumps, as well as more homes for a growing population. There are also proposals to expand liquefied natural gas (LNG) production. Such LNG projects could be huge power consumers. An electrified compression train requires about 400 GWh/year for each million tonnes of LNG (MTPA). The recent investment decision for the Cedar LNG project with 3.3 MTPA capacity will need about 1,300 GWh/year. Other LNG export terminals that are being proposed could require even more electricity.

Perhaps it is useful to provide some reference values. BC Hydro provided a total of 55,413 GWh in Fiscal Year 2024 (ending March 1). 35% each of this output went to residential customers and light industrial/commercial customers, while 25% went to large industrial customers. The average residential customer used 9,703 kWh/year, down 3.4% from the previous year. Demand peaked at 11.4 Gigawatts [GW]. The maximum capacity is just over 12.0 GW. Large industrial consumers generate revenue of $62/MWh, while residential consumers generate revenue of $111/MWh. You may wonder why large industrial customers get lower rates. The main reason is that their load does not show seasonal and diurnal variation as households, and therefore less power capacity is needed relative to energy. In other words, the high variability of power demand from households comes at a premium.

British Columbia already has ten operating windfarms, delivering energy in excess of 2,000 GWh/year, as the table below shows. Five of these wind projects are large wind farms, and five are small projects. The seven new wind farms will all be large projects. Four of the new wind farms will be larger then the current largest wind farm, Meikle on Tumbler Ridge. This shows the evolution of wind projects. They are getting bigger and less costly.

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Posted on Monday, December 9, 2024 at 17:30 — #Energy | #BC