When it comes to electricity trade, volume and value can sometimes tell different stories. Electricity can be imported and exported at vastly different prices. I had written about this previously in my blog about British Columbia's evolving electricity trade with the United States. Because of the ongoing trade war with the United States and Ontario's plan to impose a 25-percent export surcharge on electricity exports to the United States, it is timely to look at the big picture of Canada-US electricity trade. I have prepared two charts to summarize some key facts.

The first chart shows the export volume in Terawatthours [TWh]. The largest exporters are six provinces: Quebec, Ontario, British Columbia, Manitoba, and on a smaller scale New Brunswick and Newfoundland & Labrador. The data are all from the Canadian International Merchandise Trade (CIMT) database. Quebec's exports tended to exceed 20 TWh, but in the last two years exports have dropped off significantly. In 2025, Quebec even started importing some electricity from the United States. Ontario's exports have declined a bit since 2020, but still amount to about 12 TWh. Both Quebec and Ontario run a large export surplus. On a smaller scale, so do Manitoba, New Brunswick, and Newfoundland. Only British Columbia stands out as a province that imports electricity at a larger scale. In three of the six years shown, BC ran an export surplus, and in the other three years it ran a deficit. In part, drought conditions can contribute to power demand.

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The next chart shows the dollar value of electricity imports and exports. This chart reveals a picture that does not immediately mirror the volume diagram above. Electricity prices vary over time, both over the course of a day and the course of a year. There are diurnal and seasonal patterns. Thus it happens that despite a drop in export volume in 2023, Quebec still managed to generate significant revenue from its electricity sale similar to 2022. Ontario had a particularly profitable year in 2022. But the largest differences can be seen in British Columbia. Even though BC imported more electricity than it exported in in 2023 and 2024, the province exports electricity at higher prices than it imports. Thus the financial balance tends to be positive. So being a net importer in volume terms can still go along with being a net exporter in value terms. When British Columbia was importing an unusually large share of electricity to to drought conditions, there was a worry that this would adversely affect electricity rates for consumers. Instead, the data shows that BC ran a small export surplus in value terms.

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The two diagrams go to show that looking at volume and value in international trade can tell different stories, in particular in the presence of volatile prices.

As for the nonsensical trade war that the 47th president of the United States is raging against Canada, electricity is not the ideal target for retaliation. Many of the electricity trading partners for Canadian provinces are "blue" (Democratic) rather than "red" (Republican) states in the U.S., and the impact on consumers will be relatively slow as electricity retail prices follow wholesale electricity prices with some lag. The intended effect may be less salient than for other types of energy. Unintended consequences may also be much higher emissions when US states revert to using more fossil fuel. Trade retaliation that would make Americans consume less fossil fuel would perhaps be a coincidental but welcome environmental boon.