Looking back at 2024, one of the important milestones in the energy industry in Canada was the opening of the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion (TMX) in May of this year at a cost of $31 billion. Currently owned by the federal government of Canada, the expansion has boosted capacity from 48 million liters per day (MLPD) to 141 MLPD (equivalent to 300 and 890 thousand barrels per day).

The first chart below shows that the system is not yet operating at full capacity, with capacity in the months of June through September hovering around the 110 MLPD (700 thousand bp/d) mark. A fifth of the capacity is not yet being used. The diagram also shows the throughput by destination: through the Sumas link to the United States, to the refinery in Burnaby, or to the Westridge marine terminal. As is clearly visible, almost all of the extra throughput is destined for overseas export.

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The second diagram shows the composition of throughput by product type. The pipeline can transport refined product, light crude oil, and heavy crude oil. The old pipeline system was able to do this by switching between product types sequentially. The new pipeline has of course separate pipes, and they can carry different products at different types. The diagram reveals that most of the extra throughput is for heavy crude oil, and only a little more for light crude oil. Shipments of refined product remain stable and is destined for use in British Columbia.

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Another way of looking at the throughput is through the lens of the destination/product matrix, shown below. The numbers in the matrix show the throughput in MLPD and thousand barrels per day in parentheses.

Which product goes where? In 2023, the bulk of the throughput (two thirds) was for light crude oil being shipped to refineries in Washington state. Roughly 12% of throughput was destined for the marine terminal, most oft heavy crude. The remaining 22% went to the Burnaby refinery, slightly more light crude oil than refined product.

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The opening of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion has fundamentally changed the picture. Now the largest share (39%) is heavy crude oil that is destined for export through the Westridge marine terminal. The export terminal also receives a significant share of throughput (13%) in the form of light crude oil. So overall, the Westridge terminal now handles more than half of the throughput of the pipeline. A little bit of heavy crude oil is also being processed in Washington state now, while the amount of light crude oil shipped there remains roughly stable.

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The Westridge terminal is expected to handle up to 100 MLPD (630 thousand barrels per day). However, export statistics from the Canada Energy Regulator (CER) show that total Canadian exports to non-US destinations hovered between 65 and 70 MLPD, well below the Westridge terminal's nominal capacity.

What is also visible in the CER data is a form of reshuffling. Canada is not suddenly exporting more heavy crude oil. Instead, more of heavy crude is shipped to overseas destination where it can fetch a higher price than shipping it to refineries in the United States.

Technical Note: 1 million liters per day (MLPD) is equivalent to 1,000 cubic meters per day. One oil barrel contains 42 gallons, which is equivalent to 158.987 liters. One MLPD is thus equivalent to 6.29 thousand liters per day.